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PGA Championship prop bet picks and predictions


The second major of 2021 is here with the world’s best golfers at the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island in South Carolina for the PGA Championship. We’ve made our picks to win and highlighted some long shots; below, we’ll look for the best value prop bets in the 2021 PGA Championship odds, with placings, groups and first-round leader picks and predictions.

There are six players with odds lower than +2000 to win, led by tournament favorite and defending Kiawah champion Rory McIlroy at +1200. He won here by eight strokes in 2012.

The best way to maximize your profit potential in the 156-man field when betting the 2021 PGA Championship is to fade these favorites and look at the various prop markets.

2021 PGA Championship picks: Placings

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Top 5: Tyrrell Hatton (+900)

Hatton shares the 20th-best odds to win at +5000, but he’s 18th in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings. This is a sign of value in a vacuum, but he’s also an excellent fit for the course

The Englishman is 10th on Tour in sand save percentage and fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach for the 2020-21 season.

Top 10: Shane Lowry (+700)

The Ocean Course, which runs entirely along the coastline of the Atlantic, shares many similarities to Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, where Lowry won the 2019 Open Championship.

Harsh winds and some rain will play to Lowry’s favor if the course is playing longer and tougher than its already high standard. He made the cut in each of his four major appearances since the 2019 Open, and he finished eighth at The Players Championship in a very similar field. Both TPC Sawgrass and the Ocean Course were designed by Pete Dye.

2021 PGA Championship picks: Top player

Top American: Bryson DeChambeau (+900)

DeChambeau, the reigning US Open champ, shares the fourth-best odds to win, but he’s still third by the odds in this pool with McIlroy and Jon Rahm removed.

He’s No. 1 on Tour in driving distance and SG: Off-the-Tee per round. He also averages 0.48 SG: Putting per round.

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Top Asian: Si Woo Kim (+400)

Kim is just 99th on Tour in driving distance, but he’s ninth in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards, of which there are five such holes on the course. He won already this season, and he won The Players in 2017.

2021 PGA Championship picks: First-round leader

Keegan Bradley (+5000)

Bradley tied for third at the 2012 PGA Championship, albeit nine strokes back of McIlroy. He’s not the same golfer in 2021, but he has two runner-ups in 10 events this year and is seventh on Tour in Round 1 scoring average.

He’ll tee off at 8:17 a.m. ET Thursday morning and should get in the clubhouse before winds pick up in the afternoon.

Russell Henley (+10000)

Henley has a slightly less appealing 1:31 p.m. ET tee time but it’s always a good idea to have a little diversity in your first-round leader bets in case the weather doesn’t stick to the forecast.

Born in Georgia, he currently resides in Charleston, South Carolina, and has somewhat of a home course advantage this week. He’s tied for 19th on Tour in Round 1 scoring average and is second in bogey avoidance.

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