The PGA Championship returns to The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island for the first time since Rory McIlroy’s eight-stroke victory in 2012. The second major of 2021 is the fourth of the 2020-21 season. Collin Morikawa looks to defend his first major win from last summer at TPC Harding Park. Below, we look at the 2021 PGA Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
McIlroy’s returning to the site of his second career major victory. After a poor stretch of play earlier this year which included missed cuts at The Players Championship and the Masters, he returned to form with victory at the Wells Fargo Championship.
The Ocean Course is a par 72 measuring 7,849 yards with large Paspalum greens.
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2021 PGA Championship picks – Favorite
Rory McIlroy (+1100)
McIlroy was the only player to finish double digits under par amid poor weather conditions in 2012. As such, he was long priced as one of the favorites to win the 2021 PGA Championship by the PGA Tour futures odds, but he peaked at +1600 following his missed cut at the Masters.
Those who missed out on those odds are getting a lower return on investment, but are certainly getting the better version of the former world No. 1.
McIlroy was top 10 in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach at the Wells Fargo. He was third in SG: Putting and had several key sand saves over the weekend.
2021 PGA Championship picks – Contender
Joaquin Niemann (+6600)
Niemann enters the week at No. 8 in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings but shares just the 26th-best odds to win. The 22-year-old missed the cut in each of the last two playings of the PGA Championship, but he tied for 23rd at last fall’s US Open. He posted back-to-back runner-up finishes in Hawaii to begin the calendar year and tied for 40th at April’s Masters.
The Chilean is an excellent iron player who’s also averaging 0.76 SG: Off-the-Tee per round through 51 measured rounds this season.
2021 PGA Championship picks – Long shot
Dylan Frittelli (+25000)
The PGA Championship has produced many long-shot winners over the years and Frittelli is worthy of a small wager with a $10 bet returning a profit of $2,500.
The toughest tests posed by The Ocean Course (other than weather) are the sand bunkers and dunes surrounding nearly every putting surface. The South African is 56th on Tour in sand save percentage and third in SG: Around-the-Green.
He tied for 33rd at last year’s PGA Championship ahead of a surprising T-5 finish at the November Masters.
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